Every year, we say it, and every year, it remains true: the Golden Globes are the most predictably unpredictable major awards show, a glitzy but free-wheeling ceremony where nominees are chosen by about 90 idiosyncratic journalists who may or may not have ever met Drew Barrymore. Yet predict the nominations—which are being announced Thursday, December 6, at 5 A.M. Pacific/8 A.M. Eastern—we must, because that’s what we do around here.
Below, V.F.’s crack team of experts reads the tea leaves to see who has the best shot at nabbing one of those freshly redesigned trophies when the Globes air on NBC January 6. We may not know who’s hosting the telecast this year, but we do know that A Star Is Born, The Favourite, and Sharp Objects should expect to have a very good Thursday morning.
BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Warner Bros. has, for reasons inexplicable to these awards predictors, requested that A Star Is Born not be considered for the comedy/musical category—so here it is instead. Despite that unnecessary handicap, the film is likely to be showered with nominations by the H.F.P.A., a group that loves the big and sincere and gave Madonna an award for Evita (albeit in the musical category). Beyond that, here’s where the split will benefit fading former front-runner First Man, and where Marvel might launch its first real foray into awards season with Black Panther. Bizarrely, Marielle Heller’s excellently dyspeptic comedy Can You Ever Forgive Me? is also being considered a drama at the moment, so that could spoil in this category.
BEST ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
This feels like Cooper’s to lose, but then again, the Globes are weird. Maybe the H.F.P.A. will go for the false-toothed mugging of Malek, or Dafoe’s arty angst. The most tenuous prediction here is probably Hawke, who has won critics’ prizes but whose quiet, strange film may not snare the H.F.P.A.’s attention. Myriad other actors could take that fifth slot, including Hugh Jackman for the largely forgotten The Front Runner or son of Hollywood Lucas Hedges, whose Boy Erased has taken a major status hit since the fall festivals and could use a boost.